By Kevin M
By all accounts, 2010 was a terrible year in the housing market. How terrible? An article this week on Yahoo! Finance sums it all up in the headline: New-home sales in 2010 fall to lowest level in 47 years.
That’s almost half a century and longer than most Americans have been alive. But even that doesn’t quite capture the gravity of the situation. Apparently records tracking new home sales only go back to 1963! Or put another way, 2010 new home sales were the lowest on record! In reality, no one really has any idea how far back we’d have to look to find sales figures that low.
Another article on the same subject, released last week from Bloomberg gives some telling statistics: 1.28 million new homes were sold in 2005 (peak) versus 321,000 sold in 2010—that’s a 75% reduction in the number of new homes sold in a space of five years. In addition, we’ve experienced a 30% drop in house prices since the price peak in July of 2006.
The curious way news is reported
Now here’s something interesting about the two articles cited above: both have put a positive spin on those numbers!
The Yahoo piece centers on the fact that December sales were 17.5% higher than November’s, and that economists are predicting a solid rebound for 2011. The Bloomberg article has decided that the truly important story is that the largest builders are poised to grab an even bigger share of the market as sales improve going forward.
Talk about making lemonade out of lemons!
I’m certain that at least part of the reason for the upbeat tone has to do with the January Effect. January is the month that we put last year behind us and start fresh. Resolutions have been made, projections issued and budgets established and we’re never more confident on the success of any of them as we are at the beginning of a new year. As an example, the Dow finally crossed the 12,000 mark this week for the first time since 2008 when it was heading the other way.
Optimism is another factor. I think it’s the natural human state; no matter how bad things get, at least some part of us remains optimistic that it will all get better. And when things get as bad as they have in the housing market, it’s also natural to start to believe that things can only get better.
Why the euphoria on housing may be premature
It’s usually when a market deteriorates the way housing has in the past few years that I’m most optimistic about its future. Inventory is up, prices are down, interest rates are the lowest in history and the economy looks to have bottomed, at least for the near term.
At a minimum I think we’ve reached the point where there are deals to be had.
And yet there are nagging problems with housing that can’t be ignored. Consider the following…
Price/interest rate relationship. House prices have fallen significantly in an environment of record low interest rates—below 5% for a 30 year fixed rate loan for much of the past two years. At any other time in history, significant drops in mortgage rates would resuscitate housing in a matter of months. Something’s different this time.
This begs an obvious question: if low rates failed to lift the market, what affect will rising rates have? If we’re betting that rates remain low for the next couple of years, we’re also betting that the economy will remain weak. How will that support housing? This is an apparent conundrum and we’ll have to wait to see how it plays out.
Home ownership isn’t as tax friendly as it used to be. Income tax deductibility has always been a major driver for the housing market. But the tax benefits of homeownership aren’t what they used to be. Standard deductions have steadily risen over the past five years, while lower house prices and interest rates have shrunk the amount of mortgage interest likely to provide a tax deduction.
The standard deduction for married filing jointly is $11,400 for 2010; at that level, the tax benefit to many homeowners is limited. For some, there will be no deduction at all, since interest, taxes and other deductions will fall beneath the allowance.
Mortgages aren’t as easy to get. Mortgage financing remains much harder to get than it was at the peak of the market when house prices were soaring. No down payment loans are harder to find, while sub-prime mortgages, no doc and stated income loans are all history. All were major drivers of home sales. Unless we’re converting to a largely cash market it’s hard to see activity picking up significantly. Mortgage financing has always been the grease on the wheels of housing, and it remains impaired relative to where it was when the market was booming.
Lost equity.Finally, there’s a pronounced lack of home equity. A 30% decline in house prices has wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in equity that would be necessary to enable current homeowners to tap by selling their homes to trade up to bigger, more expensive ones. In a nation of non-savers, it’s hard to see where the cash will come from for all those down payments.
How to avoid being a victim of a false start in housing
With all of those factors dragging on housing am I suggesting that you avoid buying a home in the near future? Not at all.
I’ve lived long enough to know that ominous adversities are often overcome by developing trends that have not yet been identified. A new technology could create fresh capital and millions of jobs; an economic or political collapse in a major country or region could send millions of people and billions of dollars flooding into the US; the DOW could race to over 20,000 in less than two years, creating a trickle down wealth effect into the housing market.
But until one of those events (or something similar) become obvious, it’s best to protect yourself and your money so that you don’t become a victim of a false start.
If you do want to buy a home, and think now is the time, consider the following as you do:
- Buy less house than you can afford. The time horizons on homeownership are now significantly longer than they were a few years ago. The easier a house payment is to manage, the more staying power you’ll have for what ever the future holds.
- Pay less than CURRENT market for what ever you buy. That will provide needed margin just in case prices aren’t done falling. (BTW, the fact that you can buy a house for less than it would have cost five years ago isn’t material—current market is all that matters, and you should buy below it in this environment.)
- Have a workable plan to payoff your mortgage early. Refinance options are constrained and there’s no telling how long that situation will continue. If you follow the first recommendation, this will be much easier.
- Make the biggest down payment you can afford without leaving yourself completely broke. If you can’t make more than a minimum down payment, it might be better to wait until you can. Take your time—there’s no rush to buy in this market.
- Make sure you’ll have a cash cushion after you close on the home, and don’t spend it all on furniture afterwards! You probably won’t be able to rely on a home equity line to cover shortfalls and credit overall isn’t as generous as in the past. This is not a market where you want to be stretched thin!
The above suggestions should keep your financial ship afloat even if the housing market isn’t done falling—and I wouldn’t be 100% certain of that even if 1000 economists say otherwise.
What do you think? Is now a prime time to buy a house? Or do you think there’s still too much to be worked out in the market to take a chance? What suggestions would you make to a person looking to buy now?